Hillslopes in humid-tropical climates aren't always wet: Implications for hydrologic response and landslide initiation in Puerto Rico     

Matthew A. Thomas  Benjamin B. Mirus  Joel B. Smith 《水文研究》2020,34(22):4307-4318

The devastating impacts of the widespread flooding and landsliding in Puerto Rico following the September 2017 landfall of Hurricane Maria highlight the increasingly extreme atmospheric disturbances and enhanced hazard potential in mountainous humid-tropical climate zones. Long-standing conceptual models for hydrologically driven hazards in Puerto Rico posit that hillslope soils remain wet throughout the year, and therefore, that antecedent soil wetness imposes a negligible effect on hazard potential. Our post-Maria in situ hillslope hydrologic observations, however, indicate that while some slopes remain wet throughout the year, others exhibit appreciable seasonal and intra-storm subsurface drainage. Therefore, we evaluated the performance of hydro-meteorological (soil wetness and rainfall) versus intensity-duration (rainfall only) hillslope hydrologic response thresholds that identify the onset of positive pore-water pressure, a predisposing factor for widespread slope instability in this region. Our analyses also consider the role of soil-water storage and infiltration rates on runoff generation, which are relevant factors for flooding hazards. We found that the hydro-meteorological thresholds outperformed intensity-duration thresholds for a seasonally wet, coarse-grained soil, although they did not outperform intensity-duration thresholds for a perennially wet, fine-grained soil. These end-member soils types may also produce radically different stormflow responses, with subsurface flow being more common for the coarse-grained soils underlain by intrusive rocks versus infiltration excess and/or saturation excess for the fine-grained soils underlain by volcaniclastic rocks. We conclude that variability in soil-hydraulic properties, as opposed to climate zone, is the dominant factor that controls runoff generation mechanisms and modulates the relative importance of antecedent soil wetness for our hillslope hydrologic response thresholds.  相似文献   

Predicting quantiles of water quality from catchment characteristics     

Danlu Guo  Shuci Liu  Dhananjay Singh  Andrew W. Western 《水文研究》2021,35(1):e13996

Water quality is often highly variable both in space and time, which poses challenges for modelling the more extreme concentrations. This study developed an alternative approach to predicting water quality quantiles at individual locations. We focused on river water quality data that were collected over 25 years, at 102 catchments across the State of Victoria, Australia. We analysed and modelled spatial patterns of the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 90th percentiles of the concentrations of sediments, nutrients and salt, with six common constituents: total suspended solids (TSS), total phosphorus (TP), filterable reactive phosphorus (FRP), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), nitrate-nitrite (NO_x), and electrical conductivity (EC). To predict the spatial variation of each quantile for each constituent, we developed statistical regression models and exhaustively searched through 50 catchment characteristics to identify the best set of predictors for that quantile. The models predict the spatial variation in individual quantiles of TSS, TKN and EC well (66%–96% spatial variation explained), while those for TP, FRP and NO_x have lower performance (37%–73% spatial variation explained). The most common factors that influence the spatial variations of the different constituents and quantiles are: annual temperature, percentage of cropping land area in catchment and channel slope. The statistical models developed can be used to predict how low- and high-concentration quantiles change with landscape characteristics, and thus provide a useful tool for catchment managers to inform planning and policy making with changing climate and land use conditions.  相似文献   

Monte-Carlo模拟与经验路径模型预测台风极值风速的对比   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

郭云霞  侯一筠  齐鹏 《海洋学报》2020,42(7):64-77

台风是我国东南沿海区域每年发生的严重自然灾害之一。本文分别采用传统的Monte-Carlo模拟方法以及较为先进的经验路径模拟方法预测中国东南沿海区域台风的极值风速(10 m高度处10 min平均值)，并对两种方法的预测结果进行了对比。本文将东南海岸线向内陆扩展约200 km的区域划分为0.25°×0.25°的网格，以每个网格点作为研究点。首先采用Monte-Carlo模拟方法产生每个研究点1 000年间的虚拟台风事件。然后采用经验路径模型方法构建了西北太平洋1 000年的热带气旋事件集，采用模拟圆方法从中提取对各个研究站点有影响的台风事件。接着采用Yan Meng风场模型计算每个研究点台风的最大风速，构成极值风速序列。最后采用极值分布模型预测每个研究点不同重现期的极值风速，并对两种不同方法预测的结果进行了对比。研究发现在研究区域的内陆侧经验路径方法预测的风速略高于Monte-Carlo模拟方法预测的结果，而在海岸沿线一带经验路径方法预测的结果略低，这主要是由两种方法构造的虚拟台风的中心压强存在差异以及模型本身的不确定性造成的。本文的研究结果可以为防灾减灾系统提供有益的参考。  相似文献   

湖相介形类壳体微量元素在古环境重建中的应用     

姜高磊  刘林敬  毛欣 《海洋地质与第四纪地质》2020,40(2):192-199

湖相介形类壳体微量元素(本文主要指Mg和Sr)是重建古环境的重要指标之一,可以定性或定量地反映湖水信息。自20世纪80年开始应用以来,经过30余年的发展取得了很大进展。在古环境重建过程中主要存在两类影响因素:(1)其宿生水体中M/Ca比值(M主要指Mg和Sr)的影响因素:季节变化、微环境差异和湖泊演化过程,这类因素通过对宿生水体中M/Ca比值来影响介形虫壳体中的M/Ca比值,进而造成古环境重建结果的误差增大或可靠性降低;(2)介形类壳体微量元素分配系数的影响因素:宿生水体中M/Ca比值、温度、碱度等,这类因素能够直接影响介形类壳体分泌、钙化的生命-化学过程的因素,是定量重建的重要影响因素。加强现代介形类生活习性和微量元素组成变化过程的研究可以消除或减小以上影响因素对古环境重建的影响,提高介形类壳体化石中微量元素组成在古环境重建研究中的精度和可靠性。  相似文献   

基于大数据分析下的气候模型     

张宸豪  冯曦  冯卫兵  刘涛  丁坤 《海洋科学》2020,44(10):1-11

为研究全球变暖与极寒天气间的关系，对加拿大13个省代表性测站10年的观测数据进行时空变化趋势分析，采用经验正交函数（EOF）寻找海洋表面温度历史数据的变化规律。另外利用BP神经网络建立了年平均温度、日降水量与地球吸热、散热、海表面温度、当地纬度间的关系，预测未来25年气候的变化，并建立了“极寒天气”与气候变化的关系模型。研究表明：高纬度地区温度、降水量普遍较低，同经度地区的温度差异较小且降水量变化不大；加拿大地区温度呈周期性变化，符合北半球的季节变化特征；北大西洋的东部与其他海洋的温度是反相关的，西太平洋南北回归线附近的海洋表面温度升高；“极寒天气”出现频率与气候变化有一定关系，局地极寒现象与全球变暖的大趋势并不矛盾。本研究为人们认识和理解“全球变暖”提供了一个新的思路。  相似文献   

风云三号C星SEM高能粒子数据检验及应用     

李嘉巍  黄聪  于超  张贤国  王春琴  张效信  曹光伟  孙越强 《遥感学报》2018,22(1):76-86

风云三号C星(FY-3C卫星)空间环境监测器(SEM)可监测轨道高度上的高能带电粒子(质子、电子和重离子)辐射环境及其引起的辐射剂量和表面充电等空间天气效应,是空间天气监测预警业务不可或缺的自主数据源之一。为验证FY-3C卫星高能粒子探测数据的有效性,需开展数据的定量检验工作。本文采用与同类卫星同类数据进行交叉比对的方式来进行检验。首先,根据一定的假设条件,对比对数据进行归一化处理,尽量消除不同卫星间观测时间、空间(星下点经、纬度和高度)、方向和能量范围等差异对高能粒子分布的影响,然后进行比对,最后计算比对数据间的相关系数、斜率和标准偏差等统计参数,并据此评价比对数据的一致性。通过空间天气平静期高能质子和高能电子与NOAA-18和FY-3B卫星数据的交叉比对可以看出,FY-3C卫星高能粒子数据与比对卫星数据具有较好的一致性。由于工作原理和技术指标相同,FY-3C与FY-3B卫星高能粒子数据的一致性更好,也证明了载荷技术状态的稳定性。通过对太阳质子事件和高能电子暴的观测实例证明,FY-3C卫星高能粒子数据能够准确地反映空间天气扰动事件的特征和强度。以上结果表明,FY-3C卫星高能粒子数据可信度较高,能够用于空间天气监测、预警以及研究工作。  相似文献   

Subsidence in the Kathmandu Basin,before and after the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha Earthquake,Nepal Revealed from Small Baseline Subset-DInSAR Analysis     

Suresh Krishnan P.V.  Jungkyo Jung 《地理信息系统科学与遥感》2018,55(4):604-621

Land subsidence in densely urbanized areas is a global problem that is primarily caused by excessive groundwater withdrawal. The Kathmandu Basin is one such area where subsidence due to groundwater depletion has been a major problem in recent years. Moreover, on 25 April 2015, this basin experienced large crustal movements caused by the Gorkha earthquake (Mw 7.8). Consequently, the effects of earthquake-induced deformation could affect the temporal and spatial nature of anthropogenic subsidence in the basin. However, this effect has not yet been fully studied. In this paper, we applied the SBAS-DInSAR technique to estimate the spatiotemporal displacement of land subsidence in the Kathmandu Basin before and after the Gorkha earthquake, using 16 ALOS-1 Phased Array L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (PALSAR) images during the pre-seismic period and 26 Sentinel-1 A/B SAR images during the pre- and post-seismic periods. The results showed that the mean subsidence rate in the central part of the basin was about ?8.2 cm/year before the earthquake. The spatial extents of the subsiding areas were well-correlated with the spatial distributions of the compressible clay layers in the basin. We infer from time-series InSAR analysis that subsidence in the Kathmandu basin could be associated with fluvio-lacustrine (clay) deposits and local hydrogeological conditions. However, after the mainshock, the subsidence rate significantly increased to ?15 and ?12 cm/year during early post-seismic (108 days) and post-seismic (2015–2016) period, respectively. Based on a spatial analysis of the subsidence rate map, the entire basin uplifted during the co-seismic period has started to subside and become stable during the early-post-seismic period. This is because of the elastic rebound of co-seismic deformation. However, interestingly, the localized areas show increased subsidence rates during both the early-post- and post-seismic periods. Therefore, we believe that the large co-seismic deformation experienced in this basin might induce the local subsidence to increase in rate, caused by oscillations of the water table level in the clay layer.  相似文献   

一种基于流形正则化的半监督指纹定位算法     

朱顺涛  卢先领  于丹石 《测绘通报》2018,(2):11-15,20

针对传统指纹定位算法采集带标签训练数据成本高的问题,本文提出了一种基于流形正则化的半监督指纹定位算法。首先以流形假设为依据,利用批量输入的带标签数据与无标签数据之间的相似度构建图拉普拉斯算子;然后与极限学习机算法相结合,通过随机特征映射建立隐含层;最后在流形正则化框架下,求解隐含层和输出层之间的权值矩阵,从而建立位置估计模型。仿真结果表明,与INN、SVR、ELM 3种算法相比,该算法的训练和测试时间相对较短,且在带标签训练数据稀疏的前提下仍能保持较高的准确率与稳定性。  相似文献   

不同天气现象下毕节高温特征及预报回归检验分析          下载免费PDF全文

吴姗  姚浪  刘健平  帅龙  聂祥 《中低纬山地气象》2022,46(1):68-72

利用毕节2010-2019年观测资料,分析不同天气现象下日最高气温特征,建立高温模型,并对近5 a 24 h高温进行检验,得出如下结论:(1)毕节高温日变化在夏季最稳定,春季波动最大。气温日较差晴天最大,阴天最小,多云时略大于阴间多云。(2)毕节8~10成云出现频率高达65.7%,夏季晴天频率波动大,春、夏季多云频率较高,且按天气现象分类统计月平均高温时,其峰值均出现在7月。(3) 24 h高温预报准确率月、季变化特征明显,夏季准确率最高,较最低的冬季高出21.4%,在区别天气现象的情况下,阴雨天时预报准确率最高,多云时最低,其中12月多云时最低为25%。(4)回归模型分析发现不同季节同种天气现象24 h高温预报影响因子权重差异明显,日照时数和平均本站气压对模型影响程度较高。不同季节晴天影响因子差异最大,拟合效果最好时段在夏季,平均估计误差为1.2℃,估计误差最大在冬季,平均估计误差为1.7℃。  相似文献   

Contributions of Fuqing ZHANG to Predictability,Data Assimilation,and Dynamics of High Impact Weather: A Tribute     

Zhiyong MENG  Eugene E.CLOTHIAUX 《大气科学进展》2022,39(5):676-683

This article reviews Fuqing ZHANG’s contributions to mesoscale atmospheric science,from research to mentoring to academic service,over his 20-year career.His fundamental scientific contributions on predictability,data assimilation,and dynamics of high impact weather,especially gravity waves and tropical cyclones,are highlighted.His extremely generous efforts to efficiently transmit to the community new scientific knowledge and ideas through mentoring,interacting,workshop organizing,and reviewing are summarized.Special appreciation is given to his tremendous contributions to the development of mesoscale meteorology in China and the education of Chinese graduate students and young scientists.  相似文献